A Simulation Study on Risk Associated with Berthing Loads for Load Factor Development

Discrepancies in existing guidelines for fender design suggest the need to re-evaluate the approaches currently in place. This paper presents a methodology for developing load factors using reliability- and performance-based assessment, focusing on the uncertainties associated with characteristic berthing velocities. Using Monte Carlo statistical analysis, this paper examines berthing velocity data collected at a marine oil terminal in Northern California. For each Monte Carlo simulation run, resulting fender reaction forces were calculated to determine the required load factor for achieving a prescribed target probability of non-exceedance. Ten million simulations were run to eliminate the variability inherent in Monte Carlo analysis and determine a consistently reliable load factor for the site. This approach presents one possible method for revising prescribed load factors in future design guidelines and standards.

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